Some have playoffs and Super Bowls to look forward to every year; others (perhaps less sports-savvy) have awards season and the Oscars, turning predictive science into a sport. Predictions for the 2017 Oscars are especially tricky. While the charming musical La La Land seems poised to take the cake, it faces stiff competition from indie dramas Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea , including sci-fi ( Arrival ) and Western ( Hell or High Water ) and a series of diverse works. , from the crowd-pleaser Hidden Figures to the arthouse thriller Nocturnal Animals — vying for their place in the annual Oscar race.
For members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, voting for nominations officially closed last Friday; the nominees won't be announced until Tuesday, January 24 — but the voting has already taken place, so whether we know it or not, the outcome is set in stone. With just a week left until the results are announced, it's time to solidify your own predictions so you can win the office Oscars and look smart in front of all your colleagues. We've broken down most of the top categories — including Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress — so let's take a look at the two screenplay competitions, shall we?
So far, three major award shows have announced their respective screenplay nominations: the Golden Globes, BAFTAS (basically the British Academy Awards) and the Writers Guild of America Awards. Only five screenplays received the nod from all three predecessors; not surprisingly, those five include the three front-runners for Best Picture: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight . This is especially good for the other two Triple Crown nominees , "Hell or High Water" and "Nocturnal Animals," as they are now almost certain to appear in their respective categories at the Oscars alongside those front-runners.
But what other scripts will be competing at the Oscars on Sunday? Let’s break it down by category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Given that many members of the Writers Guild are also members of the Academy, looking at the WGA nominees is usually a good place to start. This year, the association nominated "Arrival," "Deadpool," "Fences," "Hidden Figures" and "Nocturnal Animals" for adapted screenplay. But this lineup is difficult to translate directly to Oscars for several reasons. First, the screenplay adaptation of "Lion" (based on protagonist Saroo Brierley's autobiography) was ineligible for WGA consideration because its screenwriter (Luke Davis) was not a member of the association. Secondly, there are two screenplays that have participated in the WGA original competition, and the Academy has decided to participate in the Oscar adaptation competition: "Moonlight" and "Love" .
The overcrowded adaptation category is in flux with the entry of three new contenders. Moonlight is a no-brainer, as is Nocturnal Animals, also a Triple Crown nominee. "Arrival" and "Lion" are also safe bets given their prominence in the Best Picture race. That leaves just one spot for films like "Deadpool," "Fences," "Hidden Figures" and "Love." Given what we know about the Academy's taste in movies, it's obvious that Deadpool will be the first to go. Sadly, Love looks set to fall victim to its classification, as it doesn't seem to have room to rank alongside the heavyweight best films in the category.
This leaves Fences and Hidden Figures to fight for the final spot. While there will be some who wish to honor playwright August Wilson's classic play, which won a Tony and a Pulitzer Prize when it premiered in 1983, others may find it "It's an adaptation that's too word-for-word to really be considered an "adaptation" at all. Hidden Figures peaked at just the right time—with the voting deadline approaching last week, it overtook Rogue One for the No. 1 spot Movie – I have a hunch it might leapfrog the competition and take the coveted fifth spot.
The expected nominees are…
- Arrival (Eric Heisser)
- Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder)
- Lion (played by Luke Davis)
- Moonlight (played by Barry Jenkins)
- Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Substitute: "Fences " (August Wilson)
Best Original Screenplay
Interestingly, the original category actually has the opposite problem of overcrowding in the adapted category. Writers Guild nominates Hell Or High Water, La La Land, Love, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight ; while three of those films are all but locks for Oscars, the other two will change category, thus creating a sudden vacuum. Which scripts will win honors alongside Best Picture heavyweights La La Land, Manchester and Hell or High Water ?
That's good news for "The Lobster ," the outrageously strange indie comedy from Greek filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos, starring Colin Farrell as a man who needs to be found in 45 days. The lover's man, lest he turn into the titular crustacean. This seems to fit perfectly into the "weird and unique" niche previously filled in the original screenplay category by films like Her, Lars and the Real Girl , and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind .
But what about the fifth position? While games like Captain Marvel, Jackie, and Zootopia may be under consideration, there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus choice yet. The latter film is currently the front-runner for Best Animated Feature, a category the Academy has previously nominated. However, these movies have always been Pixar productions ( Up, WALL-E, Ratatouille, The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Toy Story ), and it's unclear whether voters Get ready to welcome non-Pixar animation into this prestigious club.
Captain Marvel and Jackie both have star performers who are very likely to be nominated for Best Actor (Viggo Mortensen and Natalie Portman, respectively), which would make them fifth Attractive options. Yet while "Jackie" was surprisingly and comprehensively snubbed by the major guilds (producers, directors, actors, writers, editors), "Captain Fantastic" competed at the Screen Actors Guild Awards with the likes of Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight . That could give it an edge in this game.
The expected nominees are…
- Captain Marvel (played by Matt Ross)
- Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
- "La La Land " (Damian Chazelle)
- Lobster (Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos)
- Manchester by the Sea (played by Kenneth Lonergan)
Subs: Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
Nominations for the 89th Annual Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 24, find out who makes the cut and who doesn’t!
